What the Reds Should Do
by Greg Sullivan
The Reds have some decisions to make this
off-season. They have to decide what to do with
their remaining 10 arbitration-eligible players.
They have to figure out a way to compensate for
the losses of Denny Neagle and Dante Bichette to
late season trades in 2000. They have to figure
out what kind of moves they can afford to make in
the free agent market. They have to find an
identity.
Of course, it should be easy to establish an
identity centered around Ken Griffey Jr. and
Barry Larkin, but for the Reds, a different kind
of identity needs to be forged. Cincinnati needs
to figure out whether it is a big market or small
market team. This may sound confusing, but right
now the Reds are stuck in between the two labels.
On the one hand, they can't even afford to retain
all of their own players, but on the other hand,
they can have both Larkin and Griffey signed to
huge, long-term contracts.
The way I see it, the Reds have two options.
They could spend some money now and try to build
a contender around Larkin, who may retire when
his current contract runs out. Or they could
trade just about everyone but Griffey and Larkin
for prospects and build for 2003, the first
season in their new park and the last of Larkin's
contract.
Although there really was no reason for the
Reds to commit so much money to Larkin if they
were just going to tread water for two years and
tapdance around his salary, the sensible thing to
do at this point in time is to live within their
means. They don't have the money to field a
roster of 25 capable major leaguers, so they are
going to have to use Scotch tape and popsicle
sticks to hold this thing together this season
and to steal some wins.
The first thing the Reds need to do is decide
who they absolutely have to keep on their current
roster. They have three free agents this season -
Benny Santiago, Mark Wohlers, and Deion Sanders -
that they would be fine without. They should let
them all walk and save whatever minimal cash they
can.
The next step is to deal with the
arbitration-eligibles. Who do they want, who can
they live without, and who could fetch them the
most in return?
Two of the players are no-brainers - they have
to hang on to Sean Casey and Pokey Reese. Casey
was hurt last year and slumped badly before the
all-star break, so keeping him at a reasonable
salary may be possible. Reese may be a little
costlier, but if they wouldn't trade this guy for
Griffey, then they should be willing to do
whatever it takes to keep him.
Their two stud young pitchers, Scott
Williamson and Danny Graves, present a different
problem. One of them will likely have to go, and
it should be Williamson. While Graves is
arbitration eligible, the Reds should find a way
to sign him and trade Williamson, who's
arbitration eligible after the 2001 season and
has some people worried about potential arm
problems.
Williamson, a former rookie of the year who
can start or close, would be an asset to a young
team, such as Oakland or Kansas City, until his
arbitration year, and could bring back a quality
players who can contribute now in return. Landing
someone like Mark Quinn from the Royals' crowded
outfield would be a great place to start as they
build for 2003.
As for the rest, the Reds should trade Scott
Sullivan, Steve Parris, and Alex Ohoa. Sullivan
should bring a quality prospect or two while the
Reds should just package Parris and Ochoa and
take the best affordable offer they get.
Osvaldo Fernandez and Dennys Reyes have to be
kept around, for the simple reason that someone
has to pitch. Chris Stynes should be an
affordable utility man and Dmitri Young, a decent
power hitter who hasn't yet lived up to
potential, should be a relative bargain in
arbitration.
Based on these moves, the current roster, and
the minor leaguers and rookies that should get a
shot next season, the Reds would only need to add
one reliever and one bench infielder to round out
their roster. Bargain hunting in the free agent
market has always been a specialty of Jim Bowden,
so expect him to make a run at some forgotten
free agents such as Randy Myers and Manny
Alexander.
Actually, I would go after these exact two,
since Alexander played much better in the
National League while with the Cubs and Myers, a
member of the "Nasty Boys" bullpen for
the Reds in the early 90's, is coming off of a
major arm injury and should be very affordable
because of it. These are just the type of cheap
risks that Bowden is famous for touching and
turning into gold.
Plan B:
Spend some freakin' money to upgrade the
absolutely horrific group of pitchers below and
make a run at an unpredictable division.
2001 Suggested 25-man roster:
Lineup:
2B - Pokey Reese
SS - Barry Larkin
CF - Ken Griffey, Jr.
RF - Dmitri Young
1B - Sean Casey
LF - Mark Quinn
C - Eddie Taubensee
3B - Aaron Boone
Bench:
C- Jason LaRue
IN - Manny Alexander
IN - Juan Castro
Util. - Chris Stynes
OF - Brian L. Hunter
OF - Michael Tucker
Starters:
Pete Harnisch
Rob Bell
Osvaldo Fernandez
Elmer Dessens
Ed Yarnall
Bullpen:
Danny Graves
Chris Reitsma
John Riedling
Dennys Reyes
Randy Myers
Larry Luebbers
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