
The Case Against Bert Blyleven
by Ross Friedman
There is a reason Bert Blyleven is not your prototypical Hall of Fame
pitcher, it's because he doesn't belong in the Hall of Fame.
Let's get this out there right away, all Bert Blyleven was, was a
mediocre pitcher who pitched for a very long time.
I ask, who considers a 13-11 pitcher a Hall of Fame pitcher? That's
what Blyleven was. For his career he averaged 13.0 wins and 11.4
losses per season. That's about 1 and a half more wins than losses
per season. Not very prolific numbers. Yes, Blyleven has 287 career
wins. However, there is a statistic I greatly prefer to wins, and
that's wins minus losses. Or how many games over .500 a player was
for their career. This is still a career number, but one that it
doesn't help your Hall of Fame chances being a .500 pitcher.
There are also other things that we must consider before election into
the Hall of Fame. First, how dominant a player was at their best.
Being the best in the game, or one of the best, definitely helps.
Also, how is the player remembered.
First I will use the competitive set of my very intelligent, yet very
misguided colleague and see how Blyleven compares. Then I'll use
my own competitive set for Blyleven.
The fact is, Blyleven was never considered the top pitcher in the
game, or even close to it. In his 22 seasons he only made two
All-Star teams. He also only made the Cy Young balloting a total of
three times. He finished 3rd in the American League in 1984 and 19xx
and got one last place vote in 1973. So for 2 years he was considered
the third best pitcher in the American League and at no other time in
his career was he considered a top pitcher.
Also, Blyleven only had one 20-win season in his entire career. That
occurred in a year where he was in a 4-man rotation (as opposed to the
5-man rotations of today's players), and the season in which he did
that, he still only finished three games over .500 (20-17).
Then let's look at what Bert Blyleven is best known for. GIVING UP
HOME RUNS! In 1985 he gave 50 home runs. This was no fluke, the
following season he gave up 46 more. To put these numbers in
perspective, the 50 home runs he surrendered in the 14-team American
League in 1985 accounted for 2.4% of the total home runs hit that
year. This year, in the still 14-team American League, Jeff Suppan
surrendered the most home runs allowing 35. This accounts for only 1.
1.4% of the total home runs hit, and that's the worst person. Then there
is Pedro Martinez who, in this higher offensive era gives up fewer EARNED
RUNS (42) in a season than Blyleven gave up HOME RUNS.
So now let's compare him to Nolan Ryan, Steve Carlton, Fergie Jenkins,
Gaylord Perry, Phil Niekro, and Don Sutton.
Pitcher | W-L | 20 Wins | ERA | Cy Young | top 3 | ballot | All-Star |
Blyleven | 37 | 1 | 3.31 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Ryan | 32 | 2 | 3.19 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 8 |
Sutton | 68 | 1 | 3.26 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
Jenkins | 58 | 7 | 3.34 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
Niekro | 44 | 3 | 3.35 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Carlton | 85 | 6 | 3.22 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 10 |
Perry | 49 | 5 | 3.11 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
As we can see, all but Fergie Jenkins (and Blyleven) are 300 game
winners. So let's start with Jenkins. While Blyleven had one season
of 20 wins, Jenkins had seven. Jenkins also won a Cy Young and had
five top 3 finishes in the balloting. There is no question Jenkins
was considered a more dominant pitcher.
Nolan Ryan is the only pitcher in this group with a worse wins-losses
than Blyleven. So what, besides the 300 wins makes Ryan a Hall of
Famer. While Bert Blyleven is best known for surrendering home runs,
Nolan Ryan is considered, arguably, the greatest power-pitcher ever.
He has over 1500 more strikeouts than any other player, and as many
no-hitters as any two players put together. Ryan was a player who
made the Hall of Fame off of unbelievable career achievements that may
never be matched. Oh, and he did make 8 Cy Young ballots and 8
All-Star games compared with 3 and 2 for Blyleven, respectively.
Steve Carlton won four Cy Young awards. Blyleven didn't make 4
ballots. Enough said.
Gaylord Perry won two Cy Young awards (two more than Blyleven), made
five Cy Young ballots (two more), five All-Star appearances (three
more), and had five 20-win seasons (four more). He was a much more
dominant pitcher at his best.
As Gaylord Perry did, Phil Niekro also made five Cy Young ballots and
five All-Star appearances. While Niekro only had three 20-win
seasons, that's still two more than Blyleven had.
Finally there is Don Sutton. Sutton was much like Blyleven except
still a bit better. He had the 300 wins (324), finished 68 games over
.500 and went to 4 All-Star games, while making 5 Cy Young ballots.
All of these pitchers were much more dominant than Blyleven.
I have a different competitive set for Blyleven, one that doesn't
include any Hall of Fame players.
This list includes Jimmy Key, Bob Welch, Dave McNally, Jack McDowell,
Allie Reynolds, Carl Mays, and Ron Guidry.
Pitcher | W-L | 20 Wins | ERA | Cy Young | top 3 | ballot | All-Star |
Blyleven | 37 | 1 | 3.31 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Guidry | 79 | 3 | 3.29 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
Reynolds | 75 | 1 | 3.30 | NA | NA | NA | 6 |
Mays | 82 | 5 | 2.92 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
Key | 69 | 0 | 3.51 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
McDowell | 43 | 2 | 3.81 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
McNally | 65 | 4 | 3.24 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
Welch | 49 | 1 | 3.47 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
I won't get into Allie Reynolds and Carl Mays as they were much before
Blyleven's time, but you can see the statistics.
So first there is Ron Guidry. The fact is, there is no way Blyleven
is a Hall of Fame pitcher if Guidry isn't. Guidry finished his career
79 games above .500 as compared with 37 for Blyleven. They had just
about the same career ERA but in Guidry's 14 seasons, he won a Cy
Young award, had three top-three finishes, six times on the ballot,
and made four All-Star teams. Oh, and one of the most dominant
pitching years ever in 1978. Now Guidry would have the same won-loss
as Blyleven if he you add 117 wins and 159 losses. That's a .424
winning percentage. Does a .424 winning percentage for 276 games make
Guidry a Hall of Famer?
Now some people (including myself) believe Guidry should be in the
Hall of Fame. So instead let's look instead at people who surely
don't belong in the Hall. Nobody considers Jimmy Key, Jack McDowell,
Bob Welch, or Dave McNally Hall of Fame pitchers. They all have
comparable ERAs (remember Welch, Key, and McDowell pitched in a higher
offensive era).
Key, Welch, and McNally all have at least 65 more wins that losses,
much better than Blyleven's 37. They all have the same number of
times Blyleven does of making Cy Young ballots, and Bob Welch and Jack
McDowell both won the award while Key finished in second place twice.
McNally had four 20-win seasons. Key, McDowell, and McNally all
appeared in more All-Star games. Basically, all of them were just as,
if not more dominant than Blyleven yet nobody considers them Hall of
Fame material (and they shouldn't) just as Blyleven shouldn't be
considered.
The Hall of Fame is for great players and doesn't need a mediocre
pitcher, and a mediocre pitcher is all that Bert Blyleven was.
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